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NOAA inflating sunspot counts

A Dalton Minimum could sneak up on us unannounced


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15 Jul 11 - "NOAA is inflating their Sunspot count by counting specks," says reader Al Morris. "To get a more scientific count that compares to the old Wolf Sunspot number please review the Landscheidt website."

A brief history on the evolution of the sunspot count

Johann Rudolf Wolf, born in 1816, reconstructed the sunspot record back to 1749 using the geomagnetic record as his baseline. Wolf used this background scale to adjust the values taken before 1847 to align with his count. His reconstruction is backed up by the Group Sunspot Number which shows very similar cycles during the Dalton Minimum. The depth of the Dalton Minimum is beyond question.

In the 1880s, Wolf's successor, Wolfer, began counting all small spots and pores and recorded each umbral area within a penumbra. Because this differed from the Wolf method, Wolfer introduced a reduction factor to his figures in order to align with Wolf.

Modern counting methods are different.

In essence, NOAA does not use Wolfer's  reduction factor, which means that they count the small spots and pores that Wolf did not count.

This means that a Dalton Minimum or Maunder Minimum could very well sneak up on us unannounced.

Today, 15 July 2011, the NOAA count shows five sunspots whereas the The Layman's Sunspot Count on the Landscheidt website shows only three.

I agree with Al Morris. I think The Layman's Sunspot Count will give us a better comparison with past history, so that's what I'll use from now on.

- Robert


"very good Robert!....I have been following layman's sunspot count from the is my professional opinion that we will get something between Dalton and Maunder and it will be a single event (still very bad!) and will peak between 2020 and 2030.....many will starve.... I also believe that if volcanic activity gets bad enough (strat. SO2) could push us over the edge....God help us!"
- Jack Bailey

Count me in agreement with you.  That's a great website which opened my eyes to the fraud that passes for science these days.  One doesn't change methods, and continue comparing data arrived at by the new method without showing it's equivalent to old data.  And if it isn't equivalent, acting as if it is reveals a blatant dishonesty, or at the very least a glaring incompetence.

It's like comparing apples and cherries.  For instance, according to NOAA, there has only been one spotless day this year.  However, if one were to count by the old standard; in order to be consistent with it they would find, as does that website, that there have been about 7 since May, and as I recall there were quite a few before that, as well.

NOAA routinely inflates by 30%, or more.

It's about time someone is shedding some light on the topic.
- Yonaton Hyland

Yeah I always kind of suspected that the NOAA sunspot count was too high - I agree with the Wolf method.   I read somewhere that in the past (like 100 years ago) they counted sunspots differently than now by not including the tiny specks that NOAA considers sunspots.   So I agree here the Wolf method is more accurate. 

Also didn't NOAA have a bad satellite which showed water temps in the 600 F degree range in the Great Lakes region just a while ago and they suddenly had to take all climate data offline for the past 10 years in shock move ??  

That incident really makes me question their climate data integrity these days.
- Kenneth Lund

All sorts of data have to be adjusted to fit past collection methods. This has reached the level of scientific malpractice.
- Rick Extraordinaire



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